B3.+distinguish+between+correlation+and+cause+and+effect

B3. distinguish between correlation and cause and effect


 * 1. What you need to understand.**

Correlation means that two or more sets of data move in some consistent pattern. Perhaps during a 10-year period the number of cars sold in the U.S. moved in the same direction as the country’s rate of inflation. Even with a 10-year correlation between the two sets of data, it is unlikely that more inflation caused an increase in the number of cars sold. In other words, //correlation does not assure that there is a cause and effect relationship//.

definitions
 * correlation- two or more sets of data that move in some consistent pattern
 * cause and effect- which an action or event will produce a certain response to the action in the form of another event.
 * [[image:file:///Users/student/Desktop/fishbone-exlarge.jpg]][[image:file:///Users/student/Desktop/fishbone-exlarge.jpg]] [[image:http://www.measuringusability.com/images/fishbone-exlarge.jpg width="720" height="538"]]

This is where you write an example of a problem that would assess this indicator. This could be: per person (in liters) per year ||= recorded crimes per 100,000 inhabitants per year || Does this data imply that if a country wants to decrease the crime rate, people should eat less ice cream? This is where you write about what you think are the main obstacles to understanding this indicator. This could be:
 * 2. Example problem.**
 * = country ||= ice cream consumption
 * = New Zealand ||= 26.3 ||= 12,591 ||
 * = United States ||= 22.51 ||= 9,622 ||
 * = Canada ||= 17.8 ||= 8,705 ||
 * = Australia ||= 17.8 ||= 6,161 ||
 * = Switzerland ||= 14.4 ||= 4,769 ||
 * = Sweden ||= 14.2 ||= 13,516 ||
 * = Finland ||= 13.9 ||= 7,273 ||
 * = Denmark ||= 9.2 ||= 1,051 ||
 * = Italy ||= 8.2 ||= 4,243 ||
 * = France ||= 5.4 ||= 6,765 ||
 * = Germany ||= 3.8 ||= 8,025 ||
 * = China ||= 1.8 ||= 131 ||
 * 3. Common mistakes or misunderstandings:**
 * finding the slope of the regression line can be difficult
 * misinterpreting whether the regression line is negative or positive when its spread out

This is where you write about where a student might be able to get more help if they wish to study this indicator. This could be: > http://stats.org/in_depth/faq/causation_correlation.htm
 * 4. For more information:**
 * unit 4 is regression and correlation
 * I recommend page 299, the ice cream and crime rate diagram
 * this is a good website